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Intel still appears to stick to this mantra, and is using the crisis to outgrow its competitors. In February Paul Otellini, its chief executive, said it would speed up plans to move many of its fabs to a new, 32-nanometre process at a cost of $7 billion over the next two years. This, he said, would preserve about 7,000 high-wage jobs in America. The investment (as well as Nehalem, Intel’s new superfast chip for servers, which was released on March 30th) will also make life even harder for AMD, Intel’s biggest remaining rival in the market for PC-type processors.
Intel一直恪守着这个信条，并利用危机来超过它的竞争者。在二月，它的总裁Paul Otellini说Intel将加速计划—在接下来的两年了花费70亿美元转移他的多数晶圆厂为新的32纳米制程。他说此举将会在美国保持大约7000个 高薪职位。这项投资将（涉及Nehalem[4]，4月30日发布的Intel最新告诉处理器芯片）会使AMD的生存更为艰难，而AMD为Intel在 PC处理器市场最大的现存竞争对手。
Two other long-term developments also point towards further concentration of chipmaking. The first is technological change beyond that ordained by Moore’s Law. Fully automated “lights-out” fabs are in operation. Within a few years fabs will be producing wafers with a diameter of 450mm, up from 300mm now, making them even more productive. “When the industry goes to 450mm and this happens at 22 or even 11 nanometres, it is conceivable to have one factory handle all our needs as a company,” says Mr Otellini. He adds, however, that Intel would never put all its eggs in one basket.
另外两项长期发展也指向进一步的芯片制造集聚。首先是技术变革超出摩尔定律的藩篱。完全自动化的“熄灯 ” 晶圆厂处于运作中。在几年之内，晶圆厂将生产出直径为四百五十毫米的晶圆，超出现在的300毫米，从而进一步提高产能。“当行业进入四百五十毫米时代，同 时技术达到22甚至11纳米，可以想象到的是一个工厂就可以满足我们一个企业的所有需要，” Otellini先生谈到。但他也强调Intel从来不会把所有鸡蛋放入一个篮子里。
The other development is the maturing of the industry. Its annual growth has slid from double digits in the mid-1990s to an average of around 5% since then. And since 2004 the profitability of chip firms has dropped steadily as many chipmakers have lowered prices to expand their markets. In the future, only three types of semiconductor firm will make a decent return, predicts Mr Lidow: those with unique intellectual property; those happy to make commodity chips; and those with enough cash to achieve unprecedented scale.
另一个发展是产业的成熟。产业的年增长率已经从20世纪90年代中期的二位数滑落到今天的平均5%。并且从2004年，由于很多芯片制造商降低价格扩大市 场，使得芯片企业的收益率平稳下降。Lidow先生预测：在将来，只有三种半导体企业能做到体面回落—有独立知识产权的，乐于制造日用品芯片的，有足够的 现金来发展空前的规模的。
How far will consolidation go? High-ranking executives at leading firms, who prefer not to be quoted, give similar answers. In the long run, they say, there will be only three viable entities, at least at the leading edge of chipmaking: Samsung in memory chips, Intel in microprocessors and TSMC in foundries. The rest will be “nationalistic” ventures in need of regular government bail-outs.
这种合并将会走多远？一个不远披露姓名的龙头企业的高级管理人员给予了相似答案。他认为在长远看来，只会存在三个可维持的实体，至少在领先的芯片制造领 域：三星在内存芯片制造领域，Intel在微处理器领域，台积电在晶圆代工领域。剩下的都将是由政府定期投资来挽救的“民族企业”。
Yet such predictions may be a little off the mark. Largely because of that nationalism, the semiconductor industry is unlikely to end up as a bunch of near-monopolies. The Taiwanese are unlikely to let the South Koreans rule the memory roost. The newly founded Taiwan Memory Company (TMC), which is to take over the six local firms, could become the core of a global memory giant. It will hook up with Elpida Memory, Japan’s sole maker of memory chips. TMC is also said to be interested in Qimonda.
然而，这些预测也许并非千真万确。主要是因为国家主义，使得半导体工业最终不可能由垄断企业把持。台湾人不可能让韩国掌控本土内存芯片。新成立的台湾内存 公司（TMC）将要接管6个本土企业，可能会成为全球存储巨头的核心。它将与日本唯一的内存制造企业尔必达内存（Elpida Memory）联合。也有传言说TMC也对奇梦达有兴趣。
彭博 的超昂贵“披萨”
As for microprocessors, in the fast-growing market for netbooks and other mobile devices, Intel has to do battle with many “fabless” firms, most of which build chips based on designs by ARM, a British company. What is more, after spinning off manufacturing, “our customers no longer have to ask: is AMD able to invest in the next generation of manufacturing?” says Dirk Meyer, the firm’s chief executive. And Abu Dhabi’s investment in Globalfoundries is part not just of its preparations for the post-oil age, but also of a long-term plan to create a “global” alternative to foundries in Taiwan and mainland China. The company will build a fab in New York state and perhaps one day in the Gulf state.
来看微处理器，在快速增长的网络书 和其他移动设备市场，Intel已经与很多“无生产线 ”企业展开了争斗。大部分“无生产线”企业制造的芯片基于英国公司ARM的设计。此外，在分拆生产后，“我们的客户不再需要问：AMD公司能够投资于下一 代的制造吗？”AMD总裁Dirk Meyer说。同时，阿布扎比在全球晶圆代工厂上的投资不仅仅是为了应对后-石油时代，也是一个长期计划，创造晶圆代工厂在台湾和中国大陆之外的又一个全 球性选择。该公司将在纽约州建立工厂，也许有一天在海湾国家。
Whatever the precise number of firms, the semiconductor industry will be highly concentrated and much of it will be dominated by Asian companies. Does this matter? From a purely economic standpoint, probably not much. The industry’s extreme capital-intensity is certainly a barrier to entry, and in theory a market with only a few suppliers is ripe for rigging. But chipmakers are unlikely to be able to extract a disproportionate rent or restrict supply—or even to try. For one thing, the industry has a history of intense competition. This is especially fierce among Asian national champions, for which prestige plays a big role. More important, the global production network of the information-technology industry is much too interdependent. If foundries, for instance, took a much larger piece of the pie, others in the value chain, such as chip designers, would find it hard to survive.
无论企业的精确数目是多少，半导体行业将会高度集中，同时其中的大部分将被亚洲企业控制。这有什么问题吗？从纯经济学的观点看，可能并不多。该行业的极端资本集约度是外人进入的阻碍，从理论上说只存在少量供应商的市场是操纵起来 成 熟的。但芯片制造商们不可能提取不成比例租金或限制供应，或甚至尝试。其一，该行业有剧烈竞争的历史。这在亚洲国家冠军之间尤其猛烈，而声望起到很大的作 用。更为重要的，信息制造行业的全球制造网络相互依赖。例如，如果晶圆代工厂拿走了太大的一块蛋糕，价值链上的其它业者如芯片设计者将会很难生存。
From a political perspective, the shift towards Asia could matter much more—especially for Europe. Although America has lost much of the “back end” of chipmaking—the packing and testing—to Asia, it still is the home of many leading-edge fabs, notably those run by Intel. Intel’s finances, thanks to its dominance, are still healthy, but the big European chip firms such as STMicroelectronics (revenues of $9.8 billion in 2008), Infineon Technologies ($6 billion) and NXP Semiconductors ($5.4 billion) are struggling. NXP has just announced a financial restructuring to lighten its debt burden of nearly $6 billion.
从政治角度，转向亚洲将会导致一些问题—尤其是对欧洲。虽然美国已经失去了大部分的芯片制造“后端”—包装和测试—转移到亚洲，但其仍然掌握着很多领先的 晶圆厂，特别是那些由Intel运营的。由于其主导地位，Intel的财政仍然保持健康；但大型欧洲芯片企业，例如意法半导体 （STMicroelectronics）（2008年收入98亿美元），英飞凌科技（Infineon Technologies）（60亿美元），NXP半导体（NXP Semiconductors）（54亿美元），都在挣扎中。NXP刚刚公布了财务重组，以减轻其近60亿美元的债务负担。
Worse, over the past ten years Europe’s market share in semiconductors has dropped from more than 23% to about 15%, according to Future Horizons, a consultancy. A recent report by the European Semiconductor Industry Association (ESIA), a lobbying group, listed some of the reasons for this erosion: the appreciation of the euro, much more generous subsidies in other regions and lagging R&D spending. If governments do not act soon, the report concludes, chipmakers will continue to migrate elsewhere and put Europe’s competitiveness at risk.
更不利的是，根据顾问机构Future Horizons的说法，过去十年的欧洲半导体市场份额从23%降到15%。游说团体欧洲半导体产业协会（ESIA）最近所做的一个报告列出了导致腐蚀 的一系列原因：欧元升值，其它地区更为慷慨的补贴金，落后的研发投入。该报告的结论是，如果政府仍然不扮演相应角色，芯片制造商将继续转移到别处并使得欧洲的竞争力处于危险中。
Although sophisticated chips are an essential ingredient of many European exports, from cars to medical equipment, the answer is unlikely to be a splurge of taxpayers’ money. A lot has already been spent on manufacturing, to create jobs. But this approach will work even less well in the future. Trying to draw level with Asia in chipmaking would be futile.
虽然精密芯片是很多欧洲出口品的核心要素，从汽车到医疗设备，但答案是不可能去挥霍纳税人的金钱。为了增加就业，已经在制造业上花费了很多钱。但这种做法将收效甚微。因为试图与亚洲芯片制造比肩将会是徒劳的。
What is more, although there has been a lack of spending on research, the real problem has been a lack of successful commercialisation. What Europe’s semiconductor industry—and its technology sector as a whole, for that matter—badly needs is a better environment for entrepreneurs, says Dan Breznitz of the Georgia Institute of Technology, a specialist in the global IT industry. Because Europe’s semiconductor industry has been dominated by big, hierarchical companies, fabless firms are still rare. In Israel, by contrast, with its newly entrepreneurial culture, they have multiplied. Europe, argues Mr Breznitz, is still too focused on manufacturing.
更重要的是，虽然一直缺乏研发支出，但真正的问题是一直没有成功的商业化。Dan Breznitz说欧洲的半导体行业和它的全体研究部门在这种恶劣环境下需要的是营造的更好创业环境。Dan Breznitz来自佐治亚理工学院（Georgia Institute of Technology），是全球IT行业的专家。因为欧洲的半导体行业一直被大的、层次化 的公司控制，无生产线公司依然很少。对比而言，在以色列，因为它的新型创业文化，已经有了很大发展。欧洲，认为Breznitz认为 ，仍然过于关注制造业。
Europe could stage a comeback, some say, should an old idea finally take off: “mini-fabs”—small, flexible and agile production units. Such a revolution has happened before, in steel: giantism once seemed insuperable, yet today plenty of steel is made in “mini-mills”, which use scrap as raw material. Might the foundries of the information age one day be under a similar threat? Maybe. But experts are right to be sceptical: transistors may get ever smaller, but in chipmaking scale rules.
有些人说，使用个老方法将使得欧洲重返舞台，这就是“迷你-晶圆厂”—制造小的、灵活的、轻巧的产品单元。这样的革命曾经在钢铁行业发生过：巨无霸型企业 看似不可战胜的，然而今天很多的钢材由使用废铁作为原材料的“小钢铁厂”制造。信息时代的代工厂有一天也会处于相似的威胁下吗？或许吧。但专家有权利怀 疑：晶体管会越来越小，但仍处于芯片制造的规模规则下。
[1] iSuppli 是一家全球领先的针对电子制造领域的市场研究公司。 iSuppli 通过提供有关战略性和战术性的信息、分析、建议和工具，帮助原始设备生产商 (OEM) ，电子制造业服务 (EMS) 供应商，原始设计制造商 (ODM) 和元器件供应商减低成本和改善供应链性能。
援引 http://baike.baidu.com/view/1708103.htm
[2] 杰里•桑德斯（Jerry Sanders,1936.9.12- ）——AMD的创始人 。半导体产业先驱人物，创办AMD，与英特尔展开30多年艰苦卓绝的竞争，打破了CPU市场的垄断地位，为PC产业的发展和繁荣作出了巨大的贡献。
援引 http://baike.baidu.com/view/453049.htm
[3] 戈登•摩尔 1929年出生于旧金山，1954年获得加州工学院化学物理博士学位。1965年提出“摩尔定律”， 1968年创办Intel公司，1987年将CEO的位置交给格鲁夫。1990年被布什总统授予“国家技术奖”， 2000年创办拥有50亿美元资产的基金会。2001年退休，退出Intel的董事会。
援引 http://baike.baidu.com/view/450856.html?wtp=tt
[4] Nehalem 是美国俄勒冈州波特兰市的一个小小的卫星城,在此处是英特尔新一代CPU微架构的代码。关于Nehalem的正确表述应该是：全新的酷睿微架构。该微架构为下一代微处理器加入了更多有关提高性能，节能控制，多处理器扩展能力以及能效均衡的设计。
参考 http://blogs.intel.com/china/2008/09/nehalem_1.php
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