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[2009.04.18]Dragon nightmares 欧盟的巨龙噩梦

Charlemagne

Dragon nightmares
欧盟的巨龙噩梦

Apr 16th 2009
2009年4月16日

From The Economist print edition
译自经济学人印刷版

The European Union finds it hard to agree over how to deal with China
欧盟在对华政策上同床异梦

HERE is a quick way to spoil a Brussels dinner party. Simply suggest that world governance is slipping away from the G20, G7, G8 or other bodies in which Europeans may hog up to half the seats. Then propose, with gloomy relish, that the future belongs to the G2: newly fashionable jargon for a putative body formed by China and America.

如果你想破坏一场布鲁塞尔的晚餐会，你仅需提及全球治理已经逐渐淡出G20，G7，G8或其他类似的欧洲占据半数席位的组织的掌控，而后侃侃而谈世界的未来属于G2：这是对已被广泛认同的由中国和美国组成的体系的最新潮的称呼。

The fear of irrelevance haunts Euro-types, for all their public boasting about Europe’s future might. The thought that the European Union might not greatly interest China is especially painful. After all, the 21st century was meant to be different. Indeed, to earlier leaders like France’s Jacques Chirac, a rising China was welcome as another challenge to American hegemony, ushering in a “multipolar world” in which the EU would play a big role. If that meant kow-towing to Chinese demands to shun Taiwan, snub the Dalai Lama or tone down criticism of human-rights abuses, so be it. Most EU countries focused on commercial diplomacy with China, to ensure that their leaders’ visits could end with flashing cameras and the signing of juicy contracts.

鉴于欧洲对自己未来实力的公开吹嘘，边缘化的恐惧萦绕于整个欧元区。尤其使欧洲人痛苦的是，欧盟对中国的吸引力似乎有限。毕竟，21世纪将是一个不同往常的世纪。事实上，对较早的欧洲领导人，如法国的雅克斯.希拉克而言，他们欢迎中国的崛起并视之为对抗美国霸权的另一股力量，预示着世界进入“多元化时代 ”，而这“多元”中欧洲扮演着重要的角色。如果这意味着需要屈服于中国要求的封杀台湾、冷落达赖喇嘛或降低对侵犯人权批判的调子，那么就这么办吧。大多数欧盟国家在对华外交上侧重于商务方面，以确保他们领导人的访华活动能在镁光灯和丰厚的采购合同中圆满完成。

Meanwhile, Europe’s trade deficit with China hit nearly EUR170 billion ($250 billion) last year. China has erected myriad barriers to European firms, notes a scathing new audit of EU-China relations by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), a think-tank. The trend is ominous. In five years, China wants 60% of car parts in new Chinese vehicles to be locally made. This is alarming news for Germany, the leading European exporter to China thanks to car parts, machine tools and other widgets.

同时，欧洲对华贸易赤字去年高达将近1700亿欧元（2500亿美元）。智囊机构欧洲对外关系委员会在一份最新的对欧中关系的审查报告中尖锐地指出，中国对欧洲公司设立了如繁星般不计其数的壁垒。而接下去的趋势同样令人不安：在五年内，中国希望其生产的新车有60%的零部件为本地制造。这对因受益于汽车零部件、机器工具和其他设备而在欧洲对华贸易中处于领头羊地位的德国来说无疑是一个警钟。

As ever, Europeans disagree over how to respond. Some are willing to challenge China politically—for example, Germany, Britain, Sweden and the Netherlands. But they are mostly free traders. That makes them hostile when other countries call for protection against alleged Chinese cheating. In contrast, a block of mostly southern and central Europeans, dubbed “accommodating mercantilists” by the ECFR, are quick to call for anti-dumping measures. But that makes them anxious to keep broader relations sweet by bowing to China on political issues.

同往常一样，欧洲诸国对如何应对众说纷纭。某些国家希望通过政治手段来对付中国-----例如德国、英国、瑞典和荷兰。但他们多为自由贸易国。这导致当其他国家呼吁通过贸易保护来制裁中国的贸易欺诈时，它们表现得很不合作。相反地，一些多由南欧、中欧国家构成的利益集团，则附和欧洲对外关系委员会所谓的“ 随和的重商主义”的提法，迅速提出采取反倾销措施。但这使得他们反而要急于通过在政治方面讨好中国以保证在更大的范围上与中国保持良好关系。

The result is that European politicians often find themselves defending unconditional engagement with China. The usual claim is that this will slowly transform the country into a freer, more responsible stakeholder in the world. The secret, it is murmured, is to let Europe weave China into an entangling web of agreements and sectoral dialogues. In 2007 no fewer than 450 European delegations visited China. Big countries like France and Britain add their own bilateral dialogues, not trusting the EU to protect their interests or do the job properly. There are now six parallel EU and national “dialogues” with China on climate change, for example.

结果是欧洲政治家们发现他们经常要疲于维护他们与中国的各种各样的联系。通常，他们声称这将慢慢使中国转变成一个国际社会的更自由、更负责任的大国。而隐含的诉求，如同人们嘀咕的，则是让欧洲得以把中国编制进他们那张由协议和地区性对话构成的网络中去。在2007年，有不少于450个欧洲代表团访问了中国。诸如法国和英国这些大国们还增加了他们自己与中国单独的双边对话，因为他们不相信欧盟能够保护他们的利益或把这项工作做好。例如，目前在气候变化方面就有六个并行的以欧盟名义的和以国家名义的对华“对话”。

Alas, familiarity with Europeans does not preclude contempt. EU-China dialogues on human rights or the rule of law are a way of tying Europeans down with process, avoiding substance. China abruptly cancelled an EU-China summit scheduled for last December. The astonishing snub was presented by Chinese diplomats as punishment for France’s Nicolas Sarkozy for meeting the Dalai Lama when his country held the rotating presidency of the EU (with other EU countries left to take note).

哎呀，对欧洲的亲近并不能排除对其轻视。欧中关于人权或者法制问题的对话仅是封住欧洲的嘴，但却绕开了实质问题。中国突然取消了定于去年12月的欧中峰会，中国这一令人吃惊的怠慢之举旨在对法国的尼古拉斯.萨科奇在其国家担任欧盟轮值主席国之际会见达赖喇嘛做出惩罚，也对其他欧盟国家起到杀鸡敬候之效。

Chinese interest in the EU peaked in 2003, when it looked as if the club would soon acquire a constitution, a foreign minister and a full-time president. But the honeymoon had ended by 2006, after China failed to get the EU to lift an arms embargo imposed after the Tiananmen Square killings of 1989. At policy seminars and closed-door conferences, state-sponsored Chinese analysts now drip condescension. America is a strong man and China a growing teenager, said one at a 2008 conference in Stockholm; Europe is a “rich old guy”, heading for his dotage. At a recent Wilton Park conference in Britain, a Chinese academic called the EU a weak power, unprepared to challenge American hegemony: China was not about to work with it on a new world order.

中国对欧盟的兴趣于2003年达到顶峰，当时该组织似乎已即将通过统一宪法，选出共同的外长和专任的总统。但欧中蜜月于2006年结束，当时中国未能赢得欧盟支持取消自1989年***以来实行的武器禁运。在政策研讨会和闭门会议上，由国家资助的中国分析员们开始流露出优越感来。在2008年于斯德哥尔摩举办的一个会议上，美国被形容成一个强壮的成年人，中国是生机勃勃的年轻人，而欧洲则是已步入晚年的“富裕而衰弱的老头”。在最近于英国举办的一次维尔敦会议上，一名中国学者称欧盟为一股微弱的势力，对于挑战美国霸权毫无准备：中国在构建世界新秩序时不会与之为伍。

Unity meets disunity
“合”与“分”

If you wanted to design a competitor to show up European weaknesses most painfully, you would come up with something a lot like China. It is a centralised, unitary state, which is patient and relentless in the pursuit of national goals that often matter more to the Chinese than anyone else. European governments do not even agree on what they want from China. They are fuzzily committed to EU “values”, but will readily trample on those in a scramble to secure jobs and cheap goods for their voters. They do not share the same vision of trade policy, or how best to press China on climate change. Worse, the biggest countries, especially France, Germany and Britain, compete to be China’s favourite European partner. This causes damage. It was mad that the British and Germans did not rush to back Mr Sarkozy when he was bullied over the Dalai Lama. They could easily have insisted that EU leaders meet whomsoever they want.

如果你想为欧洲设计一个能最毫不留情地显示欧洲的衰弱的对手的话，那么它的样子将最接近于中国。中国是一个集权的、统一的国家，它耐心地、毫无保留地追求那些通常仅与中国最有关的国家目标。而欧洲则甚至连他们希望从中国那里获得什么都不能达成一致。他们模糊地认同所谓的“欧洲价值观”，但一旦在为他们的选民们争夺安全的工作或廉价的商品时，就马上转而践踏这些“价值观”。他们对在贸易政策或气候变化问题上如何去推动中国等方面都没有一致的愿景。更是糟糕的是，那些最大的欧洲国家，特别是法国、德国和英国，都在相互竞争成为中国最满意的欧洲伙伴。这是极具破坏性的。英国和德国没在萨科奇于达赖喇嘛问题上采取强势态度时给予大力支持是极其愚蠢的，因为他们尽可坚称欧盟领袖们想见谁就见谁。

Yet talk of a “Chi-merican” G2 running the world is overblown. For one thing, China will probably prefer to keep its own global options open. For another, senior Brussels figures rightly insist that the EU’s voice cannot be ignored in global economic discussions. It is China’s largest trading partner, after all, with two-way trade worth a huge EUR300 billion.

但认为由“中美联盟”G2掌控世界的言论也属言过其实。一则，中国可能更希望能保持一个开放的全球选择权。再则，布鲁塞尔的大人物们义正严辞地坚持在全球经济论坛中欧洲的声音不应被忽略。毕竟，它是中国最大的贸易伙伴，双方的贸易额达到3000亿欧元之巨。

Ideally, European governments would be less feeble and fractious. Failing that, Europe could set itself more modest goals. Chinese officials are reportedly fascinated by European welfare and public-health systems, as well as by EU product regulation. Providing a model for red-tape or welfare reform may not be as much fun as jointly running a multipolar world. But with its pathetic record of handling partners such as China, Europe should welcome recognition of its relevance, however it is offered.

最理想的情况是，欧洲国家不要如此软弱和乖张。然而，如果不能达到这点的话，欧洲可以设定一个比较容易达到的目标。中国官员们都被报道成对欧洲的福利和公共医疗体系及产品规范十分热衷。尽管提供一个规范的红头文件或福利改革的范本并不如共同管理多极世界那么有趣，但基于欧洲在对付像中国这样的伙伴方面的经验少得可怜，它至少应该张开双臂去欢迎对他们之间关系的识别，不管采取什么样的姿态。

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